The Missed Moment of ADT Initiation
When an older man starts androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) for prostate cancer, one moment carries two guideline duties: monitor his bones (ADT causes bone loss and fracture) and, if his cancer is already metastatic, intensify treatment (add an ARPI or docetaxel, which improves survival). Examined together in one population, both duties fail at the same moment.
How the cohorts were built →
Full derivation from 61,114,901 network patients to every numerator, with the query-builder logic.
The figures →
Screening, intensification, agent mix, comorbidity and disparities — the manuscript figures.
The paper — on request →
The manuscript is not posted publicly while the work is under review. Email me and I will send it.
The two care gaps, in plain language
Gap 1 — bone-health monitoring is largely absent
ADT accelerates bone loss, so guidelines say to check bone density (a DXA scan) around when it starts. In practice 69.3% of men never get a central DXA at any point, and uptake barely rises over ten years. When it happens it is 3.6× more likely in men who already had a bone-disease diagnosis before ADT — the scan follows a problem already on the chart, not the treatment that creates new risk. Screening is also delivered less often to Black and Asian men.
Gap 2 — survival-improving treatment is under-delivered
For metastatic men, adding an ARPI or docetaxel improves survival, yet only 41.1% were intensified; 58.9% received neither agent. Use rose from 25.5% (2017) to 46.7% (2023) — driven by ARPI while docetaxel stayed flat — then plateaued. The un-intensified men were only modestly frailer, and men with visceral disease were intensified no more often (RR 1.00).
The unifying thesis: both failures converge on the same clinical moment — ADT initiation — and share a pattern. Care is organized around problems that have already declared themselves (a coded metastasis, a diagnosed bone disease) rather than around the foreseeable consequences of starting the treatment.
Cohort & query derivation
Each cohort was carved by ANDing one criterion at a time onto its parent, anchored to the first incident ADT term. The Mets1 partition closes exactly (3,170 + 4,541 = 7,711).
Query builders — how each query was constructed
Plain-language build logic for every cohort and numerator: terms, codes, relationship anchors, windows, instance/exclusion rules.
Rules applied to (almost) every query
- Global filter: Male patients only.
- Prostate cancer base: ICD-10-CM C61 recorded on ≥2 occasions (two ANDed C61 groups).
- Age ≥70 applied as Age-at-Event on the C61 term (not the platform's global current-age filter).
- Every temporal relationship is anchored to the FIRST incident ADT term; other criteria are defined relative to it.
- Counts of ≤10 are obfuscated by the platform (low-count floor).
Code lists & ladders
ADT union (8 terms, ORed)
| Agent | System | Code |
|---|---|---|
| Leuprolide | RxNorm | 42375 |
| Relugolix | RxNorm | 2472778 |
| Degarelix | RxNorm | 475230 |
| Goserelin | RxNorm | 50610 |
| Triptorelin | RxNorm | 38782 |
| Histrelin | RxNorm | 50975 |
| Orchiectomy, simple | CPT | 54520 |
| Orchiectomy, laparoscopic | CPT | 54690 |
Excluded from ADT union
| Item | Reason |
|---|---|
| CPT 55250 | VASECTOMY — inflated the cohort to 79,094; excluded |
| bicalutamide / flutamide / nilutamide | peripheral antiandrogens; flare cover, not castrating ADT |
| ketoconazole | not ADT |
| Identifier 1014948 | internal rollup, redundant with 77080 |
ARPI union
| Agent | System | Code |
|---|---|---|
| Abiraterone | RxNorm | 1100072 |
| Enzalutamide | RxNorm | 1307298 |
| Apalutamide | RxNorm | 1999574 |
| Darolutamide | RxNorm | 2180325 |
Docetaxel
| Agent | System | Code |
|---|---|---|
| Docetaxel (ingredient) | RxNorm | 72962 |
| Injection, docetaxel 1mg | HCPCS | J9171 |
Metastasis (M1) ICD-10-CM
| Site | Code |
|---|---|
| Bone | C79.51 |
| Bone marrow | C79.52 |
| Liver | C78.7 |
| Lung | C78.0 |
| Brain | C79.31 |
DXA (Central=77080/85/86; Any +77081)
| Type | System | Code |
|---|---|---|
| Axial | CPT | 77080 |
| Axial + VFA | CPT | 77085 |
| VFA | CPT | 77086 |
| Peripheral | CPT | 77081 |
Pre-ADT bone-disease covariates
| Diagnosis | System | Code |
|---|---|---|
| Osteoporosis | ICD-10-CM | M81 |
| Osteopenia / bone-density | ICD-10-CM | M85.8 |
| Disorders of bone density | ICD-10-CM | M80–M85 |
| Osteoporosis fracture history | ICD-10-CM | Z87.310 |
| Osteoporosis screening encounter | ICD-10-CM | Z13.820 |
Data & results workbook · Aug 19, 2026
Headline results as held in the master workbook — every value read live from the raw-counts sheet.
Study 6 — bone-density screening
| Window / measure | n | % of 35,851 | HCOs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central DXA ≤1 y (primary) | 4,691 | 13.1% | 49 |
| Central DXA ≤2 y | 6,486 | 18.1% | 51 |
| Central DXA ≤5 y | 8,772 | 24.5% | 51 |
| Central DXA ≤10 y | 9,425 | 26.3% | 51 |
| Never central DXA (headline) | 24,849 | 69.3% | — |
Study 7 — treatment intensification by year
| Index year | Metastatic (Mets1) | ARPI n (%) | Union n (%) | Docetaxel n (%) | Triplet n (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1,773 | 220 (12.4%) | 452 (25.5%) | 244 (13.8%) | 12 (0.7%) |
| 2018 | 2,165 | 379 (17.5%) | 663 (30.6%) | 303 (14.0%) | 19 (0.9%) |
| 2019 | 2,541 | 555 (21.8%) | 884 (34.8%) | 353 (13.9%) | 24 (0.9%) |
| 2020 | 2,730 | 729 (26.7%) | 1,048 (38.4%) | 346 (12.7%) | 27 (1.0%) |
| 2021 | 3,148 | 1,005 (31.9%) | 1,334 (42.4%) | 365 (11.6%) | 36 (1.1%) |
| 2022 | 3,685 | 1,313 (35.6%) | 1,637 (44.4%) | 390 (10.6%) | 66 (1.8%) |
| 2023 | 4,054 | 1,570 (38.7%) | 1,893 (46.7%) | 437 (10.8%) | 114 (2.8%) |
| Pooled | 7,711 | 2,549 (33.1%) | 3,170 (41.1%) | 782 (10.1%) | 161 (2.1%) |
Comorbidity prevalence ratios
| Comorbidity | Intensified % (n=2,797) | Non-intensified % (n=4,062) | Prevalence ratio [95% CI] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diabetes, type 2 (E11) | 37.8% | 38.6% | 1.02 [0.96–1.08] |
| Chronic kidney disease (N18) | 34.4% | 36.1% | 1.05 [0.98–1.12] |
| Heart failure (I50) | 27.7% | 27.7% | 1.00 [0.93–1.08] |
| COPD (J44) | 13.9% | 17.5% | 1.26 [1.12–1.41] |
| Dementia (F03) | 6.3% | 8.5% | 1.36 [1.14–1.62] |
| Alzheimer disease (G30) | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.71 [1.21–2.41] |
| Coronary artery disease (I25) | 48.7% | 51.8% | 1.06 [1.01–1.12] |
| Atrial fibrillation (I48) | 29.0% | 28.9% | 1.00 [0.92–1.08] |
Disparities — bone-density screening (≤12 mo)
| Group | ADT cohort n | Screened n | Rate | RR vs White |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | 26,289 | 3,479 | 13.2% | 1.00 (ref) |
| Black | 5,521 | 656 | 11.9% | 0.90 [0.83–0.97] |
| Hispanic | 1,660 | 235 | 14.2% | 1.07 [0.95–1.21] |
| Asian | 1,284 | 145 | 11.3% | 0.85 [0.73–1.00] |
Disparities — treatment intensification
| Group | Mets1 n | Intensified n | Rate | RR vs White |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | 5,708 | 2,339 | 41.0% | 1.00 (ref) |
| Black | 1,043 | 409 | 39.2% | 0.96 [0.88–1.04] |
| Hispanic | 385 | 152 | 39.5% | 0.96 [0.85–1.09] |
| Asian | 266 | 133 | 50.0% | 1.22 [1.08–1.38] |
Figures pca_figures.py
The manuscript figures, produced by pca_figures.py from the same workbook and referenced live — re-run it to update them here.
Methods, pitfalls & limitations
Query-builder pitfalls — each produced a wrong number before it was caught
- Never put a time constraint on a group that serves as a relationship anchor — it changes what “first instance” means and slides the index date forward, inflating counts.
- Instance rules and term filters must sit on separate ANDed groups (an instance rule on a filtered term collapsed 4,201 → 217).
- Groups containing CANNOT-HAVE terms cannot take an instance rule; keep washout and instance-count groups separate.
- Relationship direction inverts easily — the washout you want is “From 1 Year Before → To Same Day” on a CANNOT-HAVE group.
- AND inside a CANNOT-HAVE block means “had both” — every operator in an exclusion list must be OR.
- Read the description the tool returns for every code — CPT 55250 is vasectomy and inflated the ADT cohort by ~19,000.
- ICD-O is not ICD-10-CM — the Oncology tab returns sparse tumour-registry codes.
- The global age filter is current age, not age at event — apply Age-at-Event on the C61 term.
- A restriction can never raise a count; if a number goes up after tightening, something else loosened.
- Name and star every query as you build it — unnamed queries are unrecoverable within a day.
Limitations
Aggregate counts only — no patient-level adjustment beyond the marginal comparisons, so residual confounding (especially unmeasured frailty in the intensification comparison) cannot be excluded. The network is weighted toward U.S. academic organizations and is predominantly White. Incident-user status is approximate, and the metastatic denominator grew over the study period as organizations were added — but because the intensification estimate is a proportion, shared accrual cancels.
References
44 of 46 entries carry a verified DOI (NCCN and a Science news item are cited by URL).
| # | Authors | Title / source | DOI |
|---|---|---|---|
| mCSPC / mHSPC treatment intensification — pivotal trials | |||
| 1 | Fizazi K, et al. | Abiraterone plus prednisone in metastatic, castration-sensitive prostate cancer (LATITUDE) N Engl J Med 2017; 377(4):352-360 | 10.1056/NEJMoa1704174 |
| 2 | James ND, et al. | Abiraterone for prostate cancer not previously treated with hormone therapy (STAMPEDE) N Engl J Med 2017; 377(4):338-351 | 10.1056/NEJMoa1702900 |
| 3 | Chi KN, et al. | Apalutamide for metastatic, castration-sensitive prostate cancer (TITAN) N Engl J Med 2019; 381(1):13-24 | 10.1056/NEJMoa1903307 |
| 4 | Davis ID, et al. | Enzalutamide with standard first-line therapy in metastatic prostate cancer (ENZAMET) N Engl J Med 2019; 381(2):121-131 | 10.1056/NEJMoa1903835 |
| 5 | Armstrong AJ, et al. | ARCHES: ADT with enzalutamide or placebo in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer J Clin Oncol 2019; 37(32):2974-2986 | 10.1200/JCO.19.00799 |
| 6 | Smith MR, Hussain M, et al. | Darolutamide and survival in metastatic, hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (ARASENS) N Engl J Med 2022; 386(12):1132-1142 | 10.1056/NEJMoa2119115 |
| 7 | Sweeney CJ, et al. | Chemohormonal therapy in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (CHAARTED) N Engl J Med 2015; 373(8):737-746 | 10.1056/NEJMoa1503747 |
| 8 | James ND, et al. | Docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both added to first-line hormone therapy (STAMPEDE) Lancet 2016; 387(10024):1163-1177 | 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01037-5 |
| 9 | Gravis G, et al. | ADT alone or with docetaxel in non-castrate metastatic prostate cancer (GETUG-AFU 15) Lancet Oncol 2013; 14(2):149-158 | 10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70560-0 |
| 10 | Fizazi K, et al. | Abiraterone added to ADT and docetaxel in de novo mCSPC (PEACE-1) Lancet 2022; 399(10336):1695-1707 | 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00367-1 |
| Real-world underuse of intensification | |||
| 11 | Raval AD, et al. | Real-world combination therapy use in mHSPC, US 2017-2023 JCO Oncol Pract 2025; 21(8):1174-1184 | 10.1200/OP-24-00690 |
| 12 | Swami U, et al. | Physician specialty and underutilization of treatment intensification in mCSPC J Urol 2023; 209(6):1120-1131 | 10.1097/JU.0000000000003370 |
| ADT, bone loss, fracture & bone-targeted agents | |||
| 13 | Shahinian VB, et al. | Risk of fracture after androgen deprivation for prostate cancer N Engl J Med 2005; 352(2):154-164 | 10.1056/NEJMoa041943 |
| 14 | Smith MR, et al. | Denosumab in men receiving ADT for prostate cancer (HALT) N Engl J Med 2009; 361(8):745-755 | 10.1056/NEJMoa0809003 |
| 15 | Smith MR, et al. | Pamidronate to prevent bone loss during ADT for prostate cancer N Engl J Med 2001; 345(13):948-955 | 10.1056/NEJMoa010845 |
| 16 | Smith MR, et al. | Zoledronic acid to prevent bone loss during ADT (nonmetastatic prostate cancer) J Urol 2003; 169(6):2008-2012 | 10.1097/01.ju.0000063820.94994.95 |
| 17 | Michaelson MD, et al. | Annual zoledronic acid to prevent GnRH-agonist-induced bone loss J Clin Oncol 2007; 25(9):1038-1042 | 10.1200/JCO.2006.07.3361 |
| 18 | Saylor PJ, Smith MR | Metabolic complications of androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer J Urol 2009; 181(5):1998-2006 | 10.1016/j.juro.2009.01.047 |
| DXA / bone-density screening underuse | |||
| 19 | Suarez-Almazor ME, et al. | Low rates of BMD measurement in Medicare patients initiating ADT Support Care Cancer 2014; 22(2):537-544 | 10.1007/s00520-013-2008-z |
| 20 | Shahinian VB, Kuo YF | Patterns of BMD testing in men receiving androgen deprivation for prostate cancer J Gen Intern Med 2013; 28(12):1586-1591 | 10.1007/s11606-013-2477-2 |
| Guidelines — bone health & advanced prostate cancer | |||
| 21 | Saylor PJ, et al. | Bone health and bone-targeted therapies for prostate cancer: ASCO endorsement of a CCO guideline J Clin Oncol 2020; 38(15):1736-1743 | 10.1200/JCO.19.03148 |
| 22 | Saylor PJ, et al. | Bone health and bone-targeted therapies for prostate cancer: ASCO endorsement summary JCO Oncol Pract 2020; 16(3):143-146 | 10.1200/JOP.19.00778 |
| 23 | Lowrance WT, et al. | Advanced prostate cancer: AUA/ASTRO/SUO guideline — part I J Urol 2021; 205(1) | 10.1097/JU.0000000000001375 |
| 24 | Lowrance WT, et al. | Advanced prostate cancer: AUA/ASTRO/SUO guideline — part II J Urol 2021; 205(1) | 10.1097/JU.0000000000001376 |
| 25 | Lowrance W, et al. | Updates to advanced prostate cancer: AUA/SUO guideline (2023 amendment) J Urol 2023; — | 10.1097/JU.0000000000003452 |
| 26 | (consensus) | Multidisciplinary consensus on osteoporosis/fragility fractures in prostate cancer on ADT World J Mens Health 2022; — | 10.5534/wjmh.210061 |
| 27 | NCCN | NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology: Prostate Cancer (cite version + date accessed) NCCN 2026; v3.2026 | no DOI — nccn.org/guidelines |
| Racial & ethnic disparities | |||
| 28 | Dess RT, et al. | Association of Black race with prostate cancer-specific and other-cause mortality JAMA Oncol 2019; 5(7):975-983 | 10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.0826 |
| 29 | Nyame YA, et al. | Racial inequities in surgical care quality among Medicare men with localized prostate cancer Cancer 2023; — | 10.1002/cncr.34681 |
| 30 | Nyame YA, et al. | Isolating the drivers of racial inequities in prostate cancer treatment Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024; 33(3):435 | 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-23-0892 |
| 31 | (RWE study) | Emerging racial disparities among Medicare & Veterans with mCSPC Prostate Cancer Prostatic Dis 2024; — | 10.1038/s41391-024-00815-1 |
| 32 | Noel SE, et al. | Racial and ethnic disparities in bone health and outcomes in the US J Bone Miner Res 2021; 36(10) | 10.1002/jbmr.4417 |
| 33 | Calikyan A, et al. | Osteoporosis screening disparities among ethnic and racial minorities: systematic review J Osteoporos 2023; 2023:1277319 | 10.1155/2023/1277319 |
| Real-world-evidence methodology & study design | |||
| 34 | Hernan MA, Robins JW | Using big data to emulate a target trial when a randomized trial is not available Am J Epidemiol 2016; 183(8):758-764 | 10.1093/aje/kwv254 |
| 35 | Suissa S | Immortal time bias in pharmacoepidemiology Am J Epidemiol 2008; 167(4):492-499 | 10.1093/aje/kwm324 |
| 36 | Ray WA | Evaluating medication effects outside of clinical trials: new-user designs Am J Epidemiol 2003; 158(9):915-920 | 10.1093/aje/kwg231 |
| 37 | Lund JL, et al. | The active comparator, new-user study design in pharmacoepidemiology Curr Epidemiol Rep 2015; 2(4):221-228 | 10.1007/s40471-015-0053-5 |
| 38 | Langan SM, et al. | RECORD-PE: reporting of studies using routinely-collected data for pharmacoepidemiology BMJ 2018; 363:k3532 | 10.1136/bmj.k3532 |
| 39 | Benchimol EI, et al. | The REporting of studies Conducted using Observational Routinely-collected health Data (RECORD) PLoS Med 2015; 12(10):e1001885 | 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001885 |
| TriNetX network — methodology & critiques | |||
| 40 | Liu, et al. | On the reported methodology in TriNetX-based studies: impossible index event designs Eur J Epidemiol 2025; — | 10.1007/s10654-025-01342-6 |
| 41 | Williford SE, et al. | Re: impossible index event designs in TriNetX-based studies (correspondence) Eur J Epidemiol 2026; — | 10.1007/s10654-026-01374-6 |
| 42 | Nassar M, et al. | TriNetX and real-world evidence: critical review of strengths, limitations & bias ASIDE Intern Med 2025; 1(2):24-32 | 10.71079/ASIDE.IM.03222516 |
| 43 | (review) | Comprehensive review of methodologies to use the TriNetX real-world-data platform Front Pharmacol 2025; 16:1516126 | 10.3389/fphar.2025.1516126 |
| 44 | Wang J, et al. | Analyzing clinical laboratory data in retrospective cohort studies using TriNetX Biochem Med (Zagreb) 2025; 35(3):030502 | 10.11613/BM.2025.030502 |
| 45 | Wang J, et al. | Bibliometric analysis of TriNetX utilization in Taiwan Tzu Chi Med J 2025; 37:452-456 | 10.4103/tcmj.tcmj_279_24 |
| 46 | Joelving F | Medical students are using a popular research tool to pump out misleading studies Science (news) 2026; — | no DOI — science.org |
About & data provenance
Data source. TriNetX US Collaborative Network — a federated network returning de-identified aggregate counts per contributing organization; counts of ≤10 are obfuscated. No patient-level records leave their source, so the study is IRB-exempt.
Snapshot. Aug 19, 2026 — network 61,114,901; 72 of 74 HCOs online. Every reported value traces by formula to one raw-counts sheet; nothing is rescaled.
Self-sourcing. This page is generated by build_hub.py from Henry - PCa Data Master.xlsx (numbers) and pca_figures/ (figures, from pca_figures.py). Change the spreadsheet or re-run the figures, re-run build_hub.py, and the page updates.
Compliance. Henry M. Blair, SUNY Downstate College of Medicine (research year at Maimonides), with Dr. Jeffrey P. Weiss as PI. TriNetX policy prohibits sharing data or analyses with outside institutions — this is a Downstate-only submission; Maimonides collaborators do not appear on the protocol or receive analyses.